Winter Heating Costs 2026-27: Why Gas Bills Fall While Electric and Heating Oil Bills Rise
The government's winter forecast shows a split by fuel and region. Here is what each kind of home should expect to pay and what to do about it.
In this article 7 sections
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects winter 2026-27 heating bills to split by fuel. Homes that heat with natural gas should pay about 9% less than last winter, propane users about 3% less, electric homes about 4% more, and heating oil homes about 21% more. Your fuel matters more than your thermostat.
The forecast came out on October 6 as part of the agency's Winter Fuels Outlook, and it covers November through March. It is a national average, so your own bill will depend on your region, your home and the weather. HeyUsToday explains tech, money, business and culture in plain language, and this guide is for anyone who wants to know what the heating season will cost before the first cold snap.
What Does the EIA Expect for Each Heating Fuel?
The agency expects a mixed winter. According to the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, average household spending between November and March will fall for natural gas and propane and rise for electricity and heating oil. The figures are in current dollars, so they are not adjusted for inflation.
The table below shows the national averages for a household that uses each fuel as its main source of heat.
| Main heating fuel | Winter spending | Change from last winter | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | $640 | -9% | $13.44 per thousand cubic feet |
| Propane | $1,246 | -3% | $2.52 per gallon |
| Electricity | $1,196 | +4% | 18.23 cents per kilowatt-hour |
| Heating oil | $2,115 | +21% | $5.26 per gallon |
Notice how much the fuel changes the baseline. A natural gas home spends about $640, while a heating oil home spends more than three times that. The percent change tells you the direction, but the dollar amount tells you the burden.
A few caveats help here. These are averages across all homes that use a fuel as their main source of heat. A large old house in a cold town can spend far more than the average, and a small apartment can spend far less. Homes that use two fuels, such as a gas furnace plus electric space heaters, will see a blend of the changes.
Why Are Natural Gas Bills Falling?
Natural gas bills are falling because supply is comfortable. The EIA expects natural gas inventories to enter winter about 2% above the five-year average. That gives the market a cushion if cold weather arrives, which keeps prices from spiking.
Natural gas and propane together heat about half of U.S. households. The agency counts roughly 61 million homes that use natural gas as their main fuel, so the 9% drop is good news for the single largest group. The EIA also forecasts the Henry Hub benchmark price for 2027 at $3.16 per million British thermal units, down 9% from 2026.
Regional differences matter. Natural gas spending is forecast to fall 14% in the Northeast, 10% in the Midwest and 15% in the South. The West is the exception, with a forecast 7% increase. That is partly because the West is expected to be much colder than last winter, with heating demand up about 25%.
Why Are Electric Bills Going Up?
Electric bills are rising because power prices are climbing in some regions and demand is growing. The EIA expects wholesale electricity prices to average $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, up 11% from 2025. Wholesale prices are what utilities pay before they send you a bill.
The jump is uneven. In the PJM grid, which covers much of the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest, wholesale prices are up 41%. In the Northwest, they are down 23%. Most other regions are close to last year's levels.
Demand is also higher. The agency says U.S. electricity demand rose 4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, led by homes and businesses during record summer heat. Our explainer on why data centers became a midterm issue shows another reason many households worry about power costs.
Roughly 58 million homes use electricity as their main heating fuel. By region, their spending is forecast to fall 3% in the Northeast but rise 3% in the Midwest and South and 9% in the West.
Why Is Heating Oil So Expensive?
Heating oil is expensive because the supply of distillate fuel is tight. Distillate is the family of fuels that includes heating oil and diesel. The EIA says East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to stay 20% to 30% below average through winter.
Tristan Abbey, the agency's administrator, said in the EIA's October 6 press release that households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight. The forecast price is $5.26 per gallon, up 34% from last winter. Milder weather in the Northeast partly offsets that, which is why spending is forecast to rise about 21% instead.
Only about 3% of U.S. households heat with oil, mostly in the Northeast, so the national story rarely mentions them. For those homes, the forecast of $2,115 is a heavy bill. It is also a reminder of how closely home heating tracks the wider fuel market. The EIA forecasts retail diesel above $6 a gallon in October before easing toward $4.50 in 2027.
Renters should also pay attention. If your lease includes heat, you will not see the change directly, but a landlord facing a higher oil or power bill may raise rent at renewal. If you pay your own utilities, ask the landlord for last year's average bills before you sign a lease, so you know what a typical winter costs in that unit.
How Much Could the Weather Change the Forecast?
The weather could change the forecast a lot, because the EIA's base case assumes a winter about as cold as last year. The agency models cases that are 10% colder and 10% warmer, and the difference in dollars can be large for a home with a big heating load.
The agency also notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has identified a strong El Niño pattern. That is a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that can shift winter weather across the country. It could cause big temperature swings relative to the forecast, in either direction.
Treat the numbers as a guide, not a bill. The EIA will update its forecast on November 10 and again through the winter, so check back if you are planning a budget. A cold January can erase a lot of the savings that a mild fall and a good price seem to promise.
What Can You Do to Lower Your Winter Bill?
Start with the cheapest fixes: seal air leaks, change furnace filters and set your thermostat back when you are asleep or away. The Department of Energy has long advised that turning the thermostat back 7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit for eight hours a day can save up to about 10% a year on heating and cooling. Savings are usually larger in milder climates than in very cold ones.
The steps below give a simple order of operations, from free to paid.
- Check your last year's bills so you know your own baseline.
- Seal gaps around windows, doors and attic hatches.
- Set a thermostat schedule that lowers heat overnight and during work hours.
- Ask your utility about budget billing, which spreads costs evenly.
- Compare prices if you can choose your supplier for gas or electricity.
- For oil or propane, ask about fixed-price or prepay plans before the cold hits.
Smart thermostats can help, but read the fine print on data collection before you install one. Our guide to smart home device privacy explains what these gadgets collect. Households weighing a bigger upgrade can read our look at home solar and battery costs.
If your bill is a problem, ask for help early. Many utilities offer payment plans, and low-income households may qualify for federal help through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. Call your utility before you fall behind, because options shrink once a balance goes to collections.
Timing is a final lever. Gas and electric rates can change in the middle of the season, and some utilities adjust them each quarter. Read the notices that arrive with your bill, because a rate change buried in the fine print can matter more than a small drop in the average forecast.
The Takeaway for Households
Your heating fuel decides your winter bill more than anything else. Gas and propane homes are in for a break, electric homes face a modest increase and heating oil homes face a hard one. Weather could change all of it.
At HeyUsToday, we suggest knowing your fuel and your baseline before the cold arrives. Your next step is to pull last winter's bills, apply the percentage for your fuel from the table above, and set aside the difference now so a cold month does not catch you short.
